Brazil's National Treasury has projected that the country's general government gross debt will reach its highest point in 2030, estimated at 89.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). According to the Union Fiscal Risk Report released on Tuesday, November 3, this peak marks a turning point after which the Ministry of Finance expects a gradual reversal in the debt trajectory.
The projections indicate that following the 2030 peak, the debt-to-GDP ratio will enter a downward trend over subsequent years, eventually reaching 86.3% by 2036. For the current year, 2026, the Treasury expects the general government gross debt to close at 83.7% of GDP. This follows data from September showing the debt stood at 82.9% of GDP, equivalent to 11.1 trillion reais.
The National Treasury attributes the anticipated increase in debt through 2026 primarily to the differential between interest rates and nominal GDP growth. Between 2026 and 2030, interest costs are expected to add 8.4 percentage points of GDP annually to the debt ratio. Conversely, nominal GDP growth is projected to reduce the debt-to-GDP relationship by 6.0 percentage points per year during the same period.
Sources: CNN Brasil.