Democrats are the favorites to win control of the U.S. Senate in the midterm elections, according to Mauricio Moura, a professor at George Washington University. Speaking to WW, he said Republicans would have a realistic chance of holding the chamber only if polling substantially underestimated their opponents.
Moura said his simulations suggest that polls would need to understate Democratic support by four percentage points across the states considered for Republicans to retain the Senate. Under that scenario, Republicans would win 51 seats to the Democrats’ 49. If the polls are accurate, he said, Democrats have a high probability of gaining a majority.
He added that Democrats have several possible paths to victory, while Republicans depend on a large, systematic polling error.
Moura pointed to several closely watched states. In Texas, he described James Talarico as competitive, while noting that polls have historically underestimated Republican turnout there since 1988. In Alaska, he said a congresswoman running for office has a real chance of winning, amid controversy involving another candidate with the same name as the Republican candidate.
He also highlighted Kansas, where an independent candidate with a background in the Democratic Party is running, a scenario he called unimaginable. South Carolina, which was not considered competitive until two days before the election, has since moved within the margin of error, challenging projections that had favored Democrats.
Sources: CNN Brasil.