El Niño is significantly changing rainfall and temperature patterns across Brazil. For November, forecasts point to a sharp reduction in precipitation in the country’s Center-North, while the South is expected to receive more rain than the historical average.
Climate and environmental analyst Pedro Côrtes said during Live CNN that El Niño is expected to reach its peak between November and December, when ocean temperatures in the Pacific are forecast to be at their highest.
Côrtes said the phenomenon has also altered the seasonal pattern in São Paulo, where heavier heat and the beginning of the rainy season would normally be expected at this time. According to him, rainfall has already arrived and the pattern may change further.
The increase in rainfall expected in the South may extend to São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, the Zona da Mata region of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and part of Espírito Santo. Western Santa Catarina and western Paraná are expected to be among the areas most affected, with even heavier precipitation. Conditions in central Brazil should remain close to historical averages, while the Northeast is expected to stay within its usual parameters.
In the Center-North, however, rainfall is expected to fall significantly. Côrtes warned that a prolonged and intense dry period could affect agriculture and electricity generation because of reduced water availability at hydroelectric plants.
The combination of lower rainfall and higher temperatures in the North may also increase the risk of fires in the Amazon. Reduced humidity could make it easier for fires to spread, while low water levels in streams may hinder both firefighting efforts and transportation, which relies heavily on waterways in the region.
Temperature patterns are also expected to vary by region. The South and parts of the Southeast may record lower temperatures, while the northern half of the country—particularly the Northeast and the central North—is likely to experience above-average heat.
Côrtes also discussed a report prepared by 80 scientists warning of potentially irreversible ice loss around the world. He said melting glaciers contribute directly to rising sea levels and increase coastal erosion. He cited the reduction of the beach strip in Balneário Camboriú, Santa Catarina, and said a glacier near the Brazilian station in Antarctica has been shrinking over recent decades.
The analyst added that warmer oceans increase the energy available in the atmosphere, raising the potential intensity of weather events.
Sources: CNN Brasil.