Final results released in the early hours of October 30 indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp has emerged ahead of the main opposition bloc but remains far from securing a majority to retain control of the Knesset. The outgoing right-wing and far-right coalition led by Netanyahu secured 53 seats out of the 120 available, with his Likud party maintaining its position as Israel's largest party with 27 deputies. In contrast, the opposition bloc headed by centrist Gadi Eisenkot obtained 48 seats. The election also saw a record voter turnout confirmed at nearly 78%.
The results highlight a significant breakthrough for two Arab lists, Raam and the United List, which together won 19 seats and are now viewed as potential kingmakers in the formation of the next government. However, these parties faced immediate controversy following accusations of electoral fraud relayed by Netanyahu's camp on October 29. Officials and media outlets alleged that these formations received funding from Qatar to purchase votes, claims that were swiftly rejected by both the Arab parties and Qatar. Gadi Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of attempting to delegitimize the election results.
The Shin Bet, Israel's internal intelligence service, stated it is investigating suspicions of irregularities but emphasized that the inquiry does not aim to incriminate an entire community that voted democratically and legally. The Israeli Electoral Commission also addressed the situation, asserting that certain circulating information was entirely unfounded. The commission confirmed that the ongoing investigation would run parallel to its own process and would have no impact on the final results submitted to the president.
Although the official results will be handed over to President Isaac Herzog on November 4, political negotiations have already begun as party leaders started discussions immediately after the election. President Herzog is expected to receive recommendations before designating the individual best positioned to build a coalition, who will then have 28 days, plus a possible 14-day extension, to form a government. Herzog warned that openness of mind is necessary to avoid new elections.
Gadi Eisenkot's bloc is reportedly attempting a parliamentary maneuver that could precipitate new elections amidst regional escalation. Aware he lacks the 61 seats required to govern, Eisenkot plans to push for explosive legislation upon the swearing-in of deputies on November 10, including universal conscription and a national inquiry commission regarding the failures of October 7, 2023. This strategy relies on support from the 19 Arab lawmakers but faces strong opposition from Netanyahu's Likud, which calls it treason, as well as resistance from some of Eisenkot's own partners. Avigdor Liberman has categorically refused any pact with Arab factions, and Mansour Abbas, head of Raam, considers a minority government under these conditions unrealistic.
With no clear majority at this stage, the anti-Netanyahu coalition is already showing signs of fracture amid accusations of foreign interference. The situation points to extremely difficult negotiations that could last for weeks. If these talks fail, Israel may be forced to organize a new election, a scenario that has occurred multiple times in its history. This prospect is particularly perilous given the growing threat of a new military campaign at the country's borders.
Sources: RFI.