Support for Donald Trump among Latino voters has declined ahead of the US midterm elections, with Democrats holding a 35-point lead among likely Latino voters, according to a New York Times analysis of polls conducted over the past month. The figures put Democrats at 64% and Republicans at 29%.
Latino voters have become a swing constituency. They have traditionally backed Democrats, but Republican support rose in recent elections, helping Trump win a larger share of the Latino vote: 48% in 2024, compared with 36% in 2020.
The midterm elections will determine all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate’s 100 seats. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers, with 218 House seats to the Democrats’ 214, and 53 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 45. Two senators are independents.
The Pew Research Center estimates that 39 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the US, representing 16% of the electorate. Around a quarter were born in Latin American countries and later became US citizens; the remaining three-quarters were born in the US to Latino parents. About 30% are aged 18 to 29, and more than half have Mexican roots. The article notes that US Census definitions generally classify people as Latino based on Spanish-language heritage, so Brazilians are not included in this group.
A recent Pew survey found that Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters is 24%, compared with about 32% across the population as a whole. Among Latinos who voted for him in 2024, approval stands at 57%—more than 30 percentage points below its level at the start of his second term in January 2025.
The survey, which interviewed 5,000 Americans between September 28 and October 4, found that the economy was the issue most likely to influence Latino voters, cited by 86%. Health care followed at 80%, education at 75%, the future of democracy at 69% and immigration at 64%, amid rising living costs.
Jaime Flórez, Hispanic communications director for the Republican National Committee, said the party was skeptical of polling and believed media coverage of Trump was heavily negative. He acknowledged the possibility of some decline in Latino support but said Republicans expected it to be smaller than the polls suggested. Flórez also argued that Trump’s immigration policies would not alienate Latino voters who are legally eligible to vote.
Only US citizens can vote: people without legal status and permanent residents with green cards are not eligible. The article also reports that Immigration and Customs Enforcement has increased arrests of immigrants accused of voting in past elections without authorization, a crime.
Pew researcher Mark Hugo Lopez said two-thirds of Latino voters consider immigration when deciding how to vote. The issue may particularly affect US-born voters whose parents are immigrants, he added. An estimated four million Latinos will be eligible to vote for the first time in this election after turning 18, though it is not clear how many will cast a ballot.
Florida Republican representative María Elvira Salazar, whose parents are Cuban and who was born in Miami, publicly criticized Trump’s immigration policy in a September video, saying it had gone too far. Flórez responded that Salazar, who is seeking re-election, had taken the steps she considered necessary to communicate with her constituents.
Sources: Folha Mundo.