Israel is following the US midterm elections with particular concern. The vote could affect its security relationship with Washington, as well as the level of US support for Israeli policy. It has also fuelled speculation about a possible joint military strike against Iran after the election.

After Israel’s own recent vote, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again warned about Iran’s nuclear programme, saying the threat remained and that, together with US President Donald Trump, Israel could “eliminate” it. Political uncertainty in Israel and statements by Trump have added to speculation that an attack could follow the US midterms.

Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel who now teaches at Israeli and US universities, considers a strike a realistic possibility. He said the decision ultimately rests with Trump, because Israel cannot act without US support and would prefer to operate jointly. Freilich was unsure whether Israel would be prepared to act alone.

Freilich also described the US relationship as a central pillar of Israel’s national security, citing issues including Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian question, the peace process, arms supplies and support at the United Nations and other international organisations.

A stronger Democratic presence in Congress could bring greater pressure on Israel, including over the West Bank and Iran, Freilich said. He also warned that a less supportive Congress could put US military assistance at risk. The current 10-year aid programme, worth more than €30 billion, is due to expire in 2028. Freilich said a complete halt that year was possible, as were partial cuts before then.

On election day, Trump said the United States would end its aid to Israel at the end of the year. He told Fox News that he and Netanyahu had agreed Israel no longer needed the annual payments of $4 billion, and said the arrangement had been reached months earlier. Netanyahu’s office had not commented at the time of the report. It was unclear whether Trump’s announcement was connected to the midterm elections.

Sources: Tagesschau.