The 2026 US midterm elections are set for Nov. 3, with voters deciding one third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives. The contests are widely seen as a mood test for the president, and the opposition party usually emerges stronger. Republicans and President Donald Trump enter with a substantial advantage, but recent polling leaves Democrats with a possible comeback, according to the Süddeutsche Zeitung.
In the Senate, 35 seats are up, including two vacancies; 22 of those seats are currently Republican-held and 13 are defended by Democrats. Another 65 Senate seats are not on the ballot this year. The current chamber has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. Democrats would need to gain at least four seats to win control, while Republicans need 50 seats for a majority because Vice President J.D. Vance can break a tie. The report says Democrats lead or are tied with Republicans in many states, making a Senate majority possible.
The closest races include Kansas, Maine, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, according to the report. Some of these are states Trump won by large margins in 2024. The Süddeutsche Zeitung bases its analysis on 270towin, which combines forecasts from seven predictors, including Fox News, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. Because there is no national vote that allocates Senate seats, each state runs its own election and the candidate with a majority in a state wins the seat. Polls are snapshots that can shift; the report shows the best and worst poll result for the leading candidates over the past 30 days, and overlapping ranges mean the leader is unclear. Betting is popular in the US, including on elections, and while odds are not predictions, they offer a view of what bettors expect.
Trump's approval has fallen sharply since his inauguration, the report says. He initially drew majority support, but now a large majority disapproves of him as president. If Democrats win both the Senate and the House, they could make it harder for Trump to govern by trying to overturn presidential orders with their own legislation.
In the House, all 435 seats are up every two years. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority with exactly the 218 seats needed for control, while Democrats hold 214, one independent is seated and two seats are vacant. House members are elected by district, with districts sized by population and one representative chosen per district by plurality. The open races are spread across many states, especially in the North and along the East Coast.
Sources: Süddeutsche Zeitung.