Journalist and former senator Ana Amélia Lemos and CNN commentator José Eduardo Cardozo recently debated on the program "O Grande Debate" regarding President Lula's ability to govern with a Congress shifting further to the right. One week after the election victory, the administration is attempting to accelerate the approval of priority agendas before the legislative renewal, which is expected to bolster opposition ranks.
The Liberal Party (PL) emerged as the largest faction in both chambers, securing 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 19 in the Senate. In contrast, the PT's Federation Brazil of Hope elected 88 deputies and nine senators. Ana Amélia Lemos assessed that the immediate moment does not represent a major obstacle for the government, noting that the executive branch holds significant power through official decrees. She argued that since the current Congress is already known, political articulation remains feasible, though she warned that concrete difficulties will arise in February 2027 when a more robust opposition takes office.
Lemos highlighted that external pressures could influence legislative processes on societal issues and noted Lula's signals regarding the retention of Davi Alcolumbre as Senate leader and Hugo Mota in the Chamber, which would facilitate governability. She pointed out that the impeachment of Supreme Court ministers is a priority for the opposition but suggested that with Alcolumbre in command, the president could keep this "indigest" topic shelved, a move preferred by both the Executive and a significant portion of parliamentarians.
José Eduardo Cardozo offered a more structural perspective, arguing that Brazil's political system inherently creates governability challenges for any president regardless of ideology. He identified the parliamentary amendment model as a primary obstacle to forming solid coalitions, as it grants legislators autonomous budget shares, thereby reducing the margin for programmatic negotiation between branches. Despite these adversities, Cardozo expressed cautious optimism about Lula's capacity to navigate the new Congress.
Cardozo suggested that the bloc of deputies elected by the right or with Bolsonaro support may not act cohesively, predicting severe internal divisions. He believes that a segment of the right captured by Bolsonarism might break away from the block, making it unlikely to function as a cemented political unit. In summary, while Lula faces inherent difficulties within the current political system, Cardozo sees conditions for him to govern effectively.
Sources: CNN Brasil.