The US midterm elections will be held nine days after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election in Brazil, in a vote that could significantly affect the relationship between the two countries. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested, along with 39 governorships and numerous state and local positions.
Democrats are seen as having a strong chance of taking control of the House and possibly the Senate, in what has been described as a “blue wave.” Republicans currently control the White House and both chambers of Congress, allowing President Donald Trump to advance his agenda with limited legislative resistance.
That agenda includes tariffs on imports, including Brazilian products, military action involving Iran and a broader policy aimed at strengthening US influence in the Western Hemisphere. Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump’s relationship with Brazil has become strained. His administration imposed tariffs on Brazilian goods and sanctions on officials in response to what Trump described as the persecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazil’s ambassador to Washington, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, has had her visa revoked since August. She remains authorized to work in the United States, but would need a new visa to return if she left the country. During the Brazilian campaign, Lula criticized US measures and emphasized national sovereignty.
A victory by Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula’s defeated opponent and an ideological ally of Trump, would have strengthened the Republican president’s influence in the region. Lula will instead begin his fourth term facing the challenge of easing diplomatic tensions with Washington, potentially while dealing with a weakened Trump and a US Congress more willing to scrutinize his policies.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 31%, according to a recent poll cited in the report. Voters have expressed concern about the cost of living, inflation and fuel prices, while fewer than 30% approve of his handling of the economy. Dissatisfaction also surrounds artificial intelligence and data centers, immigration, alleged corruption and the environmental and energy effects of government policies.
Support has also declined among young voters and Hispanic Americans, groups that helped propel Trump back to the White House. Some Republican candidates have sought to distance themselves from him, while Democrats have made gains in states that traditionally favor Republicans.
A national poll by The New York Times and Siena University, released on October 21, gave Democrats an 11-point lead. The Senate race is more challenging: Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats have 45, joined by two independent senators. Of the 35 seats being contested, 22 are currently held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats. Democrats would need to gain four additional seats to secure a majority.
A Democratic majority in either chamber would give the opposition greater authority to investigate and challenge the administration. In the Senate, it could also block Trump’s nominees for cabinet positions, ambassadorships and judicial posts, including possible Supreme Court vacancies.
The outcome could be particularly important for US policy toward Brazil and Latin America. Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads an ideological faction within the administration that competes with a more pragmatic group for Trump’s attention on relations with Brazil. Analysts cited in the report say that Democratic control of congressional committees could lead to closer examination of Rubio’s foreign-policy role and his ambitions for the 2028 presidential election.
Congress also has constitutional authority over foreign trade and tariffs. Democrats could investigate the duties imposed by Trump, including those affecting Brazilian goods, and examine their economic impact. Although lawmakers would gain greater oversight, Trump could respond by using additional executive powers to pursue his agenda and veto legislation passed by the opposition.
A Democratic-led Congress could also intensify scrutiny of Trump’s security policy in Latin America, including military cooperation and operations linked to the fight against drug trafficking and organized crime. More than 20 Latin American cartels and criminal groups have been designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations by the United States, including Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho.
The designation, supported by Flávio Bolsonaro, has opposed by Lula’s government. Brazilian officials are concerned that the fight against organized crime could be used to advance a broader militarization agenda in the region. Brazil is not part of the US-led “Shield of the Americas” alliance, created to expand regional cooperation, security and counter-narcotics efforts.
Democratic control could bring congressional hearings and investigations into military operations in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as US policy toward Venezuela. The Senate would also have more influence over appointments, while control of the budget could give lawmakers additional leverage and allow investigations into alleged abuses of presidential power, including possible impeachment proceedings.
However, Democrats would face significant limits. Trump could veto their legislation, refuse to comply with subpoenas and delay oversight efforts. A congressional majority would nevertheless make the final two years of his presidency more difficult and could accelerate the political transition expected after his second term, since the US Constitution bars him from seeking a third term.
For Brazil, the possible shift in Washington presents both an opportunity and a risk. Lula’s government would need to maintain channels with Trump’s administration while also building relationships with congressional leaders and other political actors preparing for the 2028 election. The bilateral relationship, according to the analysts cited, will have to account for a changing political cycle in the United States.
Sources: G1.