Brazil’s Business Confidence Index fell 0.3 points in October from September to 89.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to the Brazilian Institute of Economics at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre). Compared with October last year, the index was down 0.6 points. Its three-month moving average dropped 0.6 points, the second consecutive decrease.
FGV Ibre researcher Aloisio Campelo Jr. said the continued decline pointed to weakening business activity at the start of the fourth quarter, with industry standing out as a negative. Assessments of current conditions continued to deteriorate, while expectations for the coming months improved. The Expectations Index rose above the Current Situation Index for the first time since September 2024.
The Current Business Situation Index fell 1.1 points to 89.6, extending its decline over the past four months to 4.5 points. Within the index, satisfaction with current business conditions dropped 1.2 points to 87.8, and the measure of current demand fell 1.0 point to 91.4.
The Business Expectations Index gained 0.6 points to 90.2, ending three months of declines during which it had lost 1.5 points. Expectations for demand over the next three months were unchanged at 87.2. The measure of business prospects six months ahead rose 1.2 points to 93.4.
Confidence increased in three of the four sectors surveyed. Retail recorded the biggest gain, rising 1.8 points to 83.1. Services edged up 0.1 point to 88.2, and construction rose 0.2 points to 90.7. Industry was the only sector to decline, falling 0.3 points to 91.0.
Confidence rose in 24 of the 49 segments included in the index, a broader spread of gains than in the previous month. Services had the strongest breadth, with confidence increasing in 54% of its segments. Data for the October 2026 release was collected from October 1 to 27.
Sources: CNN Brasil.