China’s purchases of US agricultural products excluding soybeans are on track to reach their lowest level in seven years, according to a Reuters analysis of customs data. The slowdown raises questions about how the two countries will meet a purchase commitment announced this year.
The White House said in May that China had agreed to buy $17 billion in US agricultural products annually starting in 2026, with this year’s target prorated. The commitment was separate from an agreement made last October to buy US soybeans. China is on course to meet its soybean goal, but bought just $7.2 billion of other agricultural goods, including meat and corn, from January through September. That was the lowest amount for those months since 2019, during the first US-China trade war.
It remains unclear whether China is falling short of its commitment. The White House has not said whether the purchase period began with the May announcement or will start after China finalizes proposed tariff cuts, which have not yet been completed.
Weak demand and competition from other exporters could make it difficult to reach the target without purchases directed by the Chinese government, analysts said. China’s corn imports from the United States have fallen sharply from their 2021 peak, and a Chinese futures brokerage affiliated with state-owned COFCO said last month that US corn was uncompetitive, in part because of ample domestic supplies.
US sorghum exports also face competition from Brazil, which gained access to China’s market in September 2025. Brazil has shipped 1.7 million tonnes to China this year, with nearly another million tonnes planned, according to Marex agriculture strategist Eduardo Vanin. US shipments reached about 3.7 million tonnes by the end of August, but sales have since dried up, the US government data showed.
US meat exports face their own constraints. China has excess domestic supplies of pork and chicken, while high US beef prices reflect a smaller cattle herd. Beef also faces regulatory barriers: although China renewed export licenses for more than 400 US meat plants in May, about half of US beef-processing capacity is not eligible to export to China, according to the US Meat Export Federation. Some plants were blocked after Chinese authorities reported finding residues of substances not approved in China, federation spokesperson Joe Schuele said.
The slower purchases are adding to pressure on US farmers, who are also facing high fuel costs. Tim Lust, chief executive of the National Sorghum Producers, said producers were eager for grain trade, while noting that “the beans are moving, but other commodities are not.”
Analysts said China may need to direct state-owned buyers to meet the $17 billion target. “A lot of this seems to depend on how much China will use state-owned companies to make purchases,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of China-focused agricultural market intelligence firm Sitonia Consulting. He said reaching $17 billion in products other than soybeans would be difficult without directed, off-market buying.
Sources: CNN Brasil.