Democrats are favored to retake the House of Representatives, bringing minority leader Hakeem Jeffries closer to becoming speaker and leading the party’s opposition to President Donald Trump. The Cook Political Report estimates Democrats could gain between 12 and 25 seats in Tuesday’s election, a result that would give them a sizable majority for the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
Control of the Senate remains less certain. The Cook report identifies seven states as decisive, while Democratic polling advantages there remain within the margin of error.
If Democrats take the House, Jeffries, 56, is expected to be sworn in as speaker in January 2027. He would be the first Black person to hold the post and the first speaker from Brooklyn, New York. But unlike former speaker Nancy Pelosi, Jeffries is not yet a nationally prominent figure: a recent poll found that nearly half of Americans had never heard of him.
During the closing stretch of the campaign, Jeffries appeared in several states alongside candidates from the party’s moderate wing. While insurgent candidates with socialist sympathies have drawn attention, centrists competing in districts currently held by Republicans are expected to play a key role in securing a Democratic majority.
Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman who led the party’s House campaign committee and worked with Jeffries, told Folha that Jeffries showed an early interest in supporting candidates and getting involved in practical campaign work. Israel described him as studious and measured, qualities he said were shaped in part by Jeffries’ experience in Brooklyn, a politically and culturally diverse borough.
Jeffries would face questions about his ability to unite a party whose left wing has challenged him. New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani recently intervened to discourage city council member Chi Ossé from challenging Jeffries in his reelection bid. Mamdani’s support came despite Jeffries’ earlier reluctance to endorse the mayor’s socialist-backed candidacy.
A Democratic House majority would also bring pressure to investigate or punish Trump and members of his administration. Representative Jamie Raskin, who led Trump’s second impeachment, said this week that he was not afraid to pursue a third. At the same time, Democrats would need to address voters’ concerns about inflation, health insurance costs and the war with Iran, which the article reports is opposed by 71% of the population.
Israel said Jeffries would face a political imperative to preserve the party’s majority in 2028, including by protecting lawmakers who win moderate districts. Jeffries declined to discuss the challenges when approached by Folha. Israel argued that his reserved public manner should not be mistaken for a lack of focus or resolve.
Sources: Folha Mundo.