With midterm elections approaching, polling and analyst assessments cited in the report point to a likely Democratic recovery of the U.S. House, while the Senate remains a tighter and less predictable contest. The outcome will shape the second half of Donald Trump's presidency, the report says.
At the White House on Friday, Trump told journalists that midterms follow an old rule: the president loses, whether he is a Republican or a Democrat and whether he is good or bad. The report notes that this is only partly accurate, because voters have usually used midterms to strengthen the opposition but the president's performance has also mattered. The report describes Trump's remarks as notable preparation for what many expect on Tuesday: a heavy Republican defeat.
The stakes differ between the two chambers. A Democratic majority in the House would allow the party to demand information from the government and set up investigative committees, powers that were sharply limited in opposition. A Senate majority would also decide key personnel questions, including judicial appointments. A president facing majorities in both chambers against him would retain freedom in foreign policy but be regarded domestically as a "lame duck," according to the report.
In the House, Republicans won the narrowest majority since 1930 two years ago, holding 225 seats to the Democrats' 220. Observers and polls have expected for months that Democrats will retake the chamber. A polling average cited by the report put support for Democratic candidates at 51.8 percent and for Republican candidates at 43.2 percent as of 1 November at 15:00, a gap of more than eight points outside the statistical margin of error. The report says Democrats have widened their lead since September as the Iran war continued and prices rose, while Trump's approval ratings fell. A long-running Gallup survey found Trump receiving the worst voter judgment before midterms in about 80 years, the report says.
The report cautions that the result remains difficult to predict. The U.S. polling market differs from Germany's, with many state-level releases coming from institutes linked to parties or commissioned by them, sometimes with tactical aims, so the numbers should be treated with greater caution. Turnout is the biggest unknown in a highly polarized environment. Trump has previously mobilized groups that vote less often, including young men with lower education levels and Hispanic immigrants, and it is hard to predict how disappointment with him will affect those groups. Still, the report says an unusually high turnout is emerging for a midterm: more than 53 million people had voted by mail or at early polling places by Sunday, according to research by the University of Florida's Election Lab.
Republicans also benefit from controlling election authorities in more states than Democrats and have tried to improve their chances through redistricting over the past two years. The report says the new boundaries could mathematically secure up to 15 additional seats for Republicans in seven states, while Democrats have used the same process mainly in California and could gain up to six seats. Depending on the scale of the swing, redistricting could prove decisive. The Cook Political Report, described as independent and widely respected, rates 204 House seats as safe or likely Democratic and 178 as safe or likely Republican; 218 seats are needed for a majority.
In the Senate, one third of seats are up for election, and because two senators have departed, 35 seats are being contested. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Most races can be assigned with confidence to one party or the other, but the report identifies seven seats that experienced analysts do not yet dare to call: Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska. Cook projects that Democrats could expand their current 47 seats by two to six; they would need exactly four to reach a majority of 51.
The report says two questions matter in most races: the experience and reputation of the candidates, and how far Republican candidates have managed to distance themselves from the unpopular president. In Kansas, Democrats have one of their strongest candidates, Adam Hamilton, founder of one of the largest Methodist congregations in the U.S.; a centrist, he has a good chance of replacing conservative incumbent Roger Marshall and would be the first Democratic senator from Kansas since 1932. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, son of Egyptian immigrants and on the Democratic left, is in a close race despite the state's usual lean toward Democrats in midterms and opposition to Trump's tariff policy toward neighboring Canada. El-Sayed has support among younger and migrant voters but problems with some traditional Democratic voters, the report says, and Democratic State Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the primary, called shortly before the election for voters to back Republican Mike Rogers.
In Texas, Trump pushed through a candidate embroiled in scandals in the primaries, and the report says Ken Paxton could lose reliably Republican Texas to Democrat James Talarico. These examples show that some races are not running along classic party lines, according to the report.
If the Senate majority is close on Tuesday, a final decision could be delayed, and everything could hinge on Alaska for two reasons, the report says. If neither Democratic candidate Mary Peltola nor Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan reaches at least 50 percent of the vote, the state's ranked-choice system would apply, with preferences counted only on 18 November. A Democratic victory could also be challenged by the U.S. Justice Department, because Peltola's campaign is accused of recruiting and persuading a candidate to take part in order to confuse voters looking at the ballot; his name is also Dan Sullivan, the report says.
Sources: Tagesschau.