Democrats are favored to win the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, according to several projection models. Such a result would be a setback for President Donald Trump, whose Republican Party is seeking to retain control of Congress.
Republicans won majorities in both the House and Senate in the 2024 elections. They currently hold 220 House seats, compared with 215 for Democrats. Democrats would need a net gain of at least three seats to take control of the chamber.
Projections vary. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics forecasts 239 seats for Democrats and 196 for Republicans. The 270toWin aggregator projects 220 Democratic seats and 196 Republican seats, with 19 races tied. Race to the WH forecasts 224 seats for Democrats and 189 for Republicans, while listing 22 races as undecided. It estimates Democrats have a 96.4% chance of winning a House majority; excluding tied states, its projection gives them 237 seats.
The New York Times has identified 21 House contests across 14 states as undecided. Another 25 districts are closely contested: Republicans lead in 13, while Democrats are ahead in 12.
All 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested. House members serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms, so the House is renewed in full every two years and roughly one-third of the Senate is up for election.
Republican control of both chambers has helped Trump advance his administration’s agenda. If Democrats take the House, lawmakers could block government actions and open investigations, a concern highlighted by international relations professor and U.S. politics specialist Carlos Gustavo Poggio.
Poggio said Trump’s main concern would be investigations into alleged misconduct during his administration. He also said impeachment is highly unlikely: removing a president requires more than a simple House majority and would need support from two-thirds of the Senate, including Republican lawmakers.
Sources: G1.