International law specialist Francisco Pereira Coutinho has characterized the concept of delivering a final blow to Iran as nothing more than a dangerous illusion. In an analysis for the "War Cabinet" program, Coutinho addressed recent reports that the United States attacked Qeshm Island in southern Iran, an operation described by government sources to The Wall Street Journal as part of a series of secret strikes over recent weeks. These actions appear designed to paralyze Iranian defenses or wear down Tehran without publicly assuming full conflict responsibility ahead of the US midterm elections.
Coutinho compared these covert operations to the "mow the lawn" tactic, where forces periodically strike targets to manage threats without resolving the underlying situation. He noted that while the US maintains a naval blockade in the Gulf, which he termed an act of aggression and a gross violation of international law, Iran continues to violate international norms by attacking vessels passing through the waterway. Consequently, commercial shipping has largely ceased due to insurance refusals, forcing states like Saudi Arabia to use their own vessels for transfers further down the line under US naval escort.
The expert described the current geopolitical situation as absolutely unsustainable for all parties involved. Iran faces a severe economic stranglehold that prevents exports, while other nations incur massive costs estimated to increase oil prices by $20 to $30 per barrel just to facilitate passage. Furthermore, maintaining the US Navy in constant alert for nearly a year has become logistically complex and financially colossal, especially after Iranian attacks destroyed support bases in Bahrain, forcing resupply operations from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Coutinho warned that the expectation of a decisive final attack is driven by political pressures rather than strategic viability. He pointed to the potential for a significant defeat for President Trump in the upcoming midterms, which could embolden a "dangerous" administration nearing the end of its term. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing his own political survival challenges, has an interest in creating a major crisis to form a national unity government. With no clear path to negotiations and unlikely concessions from Washington, the region risks entering a spiral that could reignite broader conflict.
Regarding the US midterm elections, Coutinho predicted that Democrats would likely secure control of the House of Representatives, though the Senate remains uncertain. He noted that while the Congress has limited power over foreign policy, its ability to control funding could restrict military expeditions if the administration faces a significant electoral defeat. On the war in Ukraine, he observed that despite Russian terror attacks on cities like Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian forces have regained territory in October even under constraints regarding Starlink usage. However, Putin continues to frame the conflict as an identity issue rather than territorial, suggesting little progress is expected from upcoming diplomatic meetings in Abu Dhabi.
Sources: Observador.