Concern about a new escalation in the Iran war is rising in the Gulf States. Disrupted oil and gas export routes, instability and recurring attacks have already prompted debate over how countries in the region should adapt their economic models and alliances.
At the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain, the immediate focus was whether the United States could be preparing another major military strike against Iran. Hasan Alhasan, who leads Gulf research at the Institute for Strategic Studies, said signals from the Trump administration suggested preparations were under way. A new round of fighting could come soon after the US midterm elections, he said, while stressing that a renewed conflict was not inevitable.
The war is already affecting the wider economy. Nils Schmid, an SPD politician and parliamentary state secretary at Germany’s Defence Ministry, said the Gulf region was facing higher oil prices, rising inflation and damage to the global economy. A renewed outbreak of fighting, he added, would also weaken the economies of Germany and Europe. Schmid called for a diplomatic solution.
The possibility of further attacks on energy facilities and military bases has also accelerated defense preparations in the Gulf. Bahrain lawmaker Mariam al-Dhain said her country was well prepared and had undertaken extensive strategic planning. Military analyst Sascha Bruchmann of the IISS said Gulf states had significantly increased their purchases, including a deal with Ukraine involving drone-defense technology.
According to Bruchmann, the states have also invested billions of dollars in US systems, conducted training and revised their own defense structures. He said the United States would remain the Gulf’s most important defense partner in the medium term.
At the same time, frustration is growing over Washington’s role in the conflict. Hasan Alhasan said Gulf states understood that they could not rely on the United States indefinitely. This was contributing to new regional security partnerships and alliances, including defense cooperation involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. South Korea is also becoming a more important supplier of defense systems, while the United Arab Emirates is relying in part on Israeli technology.
European involvement was discussed less frequently, although EU representatives attended the conference. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called for stronger European engagement to protect freedom of navigation, including through military means. He specifically referred to the EU naval mission Aspides, which protects international commercial shipping from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement. Five EU countries, including Germany, currently take part in the mission; Mitsotakis said the number could rise to ten.
Schmid said European efforts should address more than a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He argued that negotiations should also tackle the deeper issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
Iranian representatives were not present at the Manama Dialogue. Bahrain is the only Arab Gulf state without diplomatic relations with Tehran. Qatar, however, is holding talks with the Iranian government in an effort to mediate between Iran and the United States and prevent the escalation many participants fear.
Sources: Tagesschau.