The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah is preparing for a potential return to war with Israel, even as the Israeli army continues to occupy more than 600 square kilometers in southern Lebanon. This occupation covers approximately 6% of the national territory and persists despite a truce mediated by the United States in June. Recent events, including the Lebanese government's seizure of weapons acknowledged by the militia for use against Israeli troops and reports from Reuters regarding funds received from Iran, point to an ongoing reorganization of the group during this nominal ceasefire. While Israeli attacks have been contained around the occupied zone, they have not ceased entirely.
Following severe losses during periods of open warfare in 2024 and earlier this year, several scenarios could reactivate a devastating conflict for Lebanon, which has already recorded 8,956 fatalities since the start of the last war in 2023. The failure of an agreement pushed by Donald Trump to withdraw Israeli forces from over 60 Lebanese municipalities, where troops have reportedly destroyed homes house by house, has left a sense of unresolved issues. Furthermore, the possibility that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might escalate fronts to sabotage negotiations with a future executive that excludes him after Israeli elections has put regional enemies on alert.
Hezbollah could also launch attacks under Iranian orders if the US and Israel strike Tehran following the upcoming US midterm elections. Although Trump stated that negotiations to end the conflict initiated in February are progressing well, he recently noted that "a couple of targets" in Iran remain to be bombed. US media reports indicate Washington warned Gulf countries hosting US bases about potential strikes against Iran after the polls, which could trigger retaliations. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has anticipated a response with "no geographical limits."
In October, the Lebanese army intercepted three arms shipments. Two loads, not demonstrably linked to Hezbollah, contained 200 kilograms of explosives in bags at the Syrian border, where traffickers fled. The third shipment included 780 kilograms of explosives in a van traveling from the Baalbek border region to Beirut suburbs controlled by the Shia movement. The detention of both passengers initiated an investigation, after which Hezbollah demanded their release and the return of the arsenal.
This case serves as a test for authorities to demonstrate their ability to contain the militia, a precondition demanded by Trump and Netanyahu to keep stalled negotiations alive. The Lebanese executive branch illegalized the group's armed wing last March after the guerrilla force fired at Israeli soil in response to the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader by the US and Israel. Concurrently, Lebanese officials told Reuters that Hezbollah has been preparing for another round of warfare for months after receiving tens of millions of euros from the Islamic Republic, which founded the organization four decades ago as a proxy near Israel.
The group is reportedly producing explosives and drones while reestablishing command structures after losing control of Bint Jbeil, a strategic municipality near the Israeli border now occupied and devastated, and the Ali Taher ridge, taken by Israel during the truce. Hezbollah's reorganization extends beyond military capabilities; after Reuters reported that Tehran sent an additional 178 million euros to the group, its Executive Council announced aid in October for families whose homes were damaged by Israeli attacks.
For decades, the militia moved its arsenal freely, legitimized by a state considering it part of national security strategy and receiving supplies from Iran through Syria under Bashar al-Assad. However, the fall of the Syrian president at the end of 2024 isolated the movement, and the establishment in 2025 of the most anti-Hezbollah government in years increased the encirclement. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, pursuing a state monopoly on weapons and war decisions, stated that the "criminal operation" involving the explosives-laden van would be thoroughly investigated.
On Friday, the military prosecutor indicted 13 people for crimes against internal security and disobeying government decisions, carrying potential sentences of up to 10 years of forced labor, a penalty rarely applied in Lebanon. Future arrest warrants are expected to cause tension with Hezbollah, though the case may remain under military instruction despite Justice Minister Adel Nassar's defense of transferring it to the Judicial Council. Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah MP and the only party with an armed wing since the end of the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990), protested that these are "capabilities of the Resistance to defend the land." He accused Beirut of exploiting the case publicly while Israel continues committing crimes against humanity in occupied zones.
The truce has yielded limited results. The Washington-mediated agreement allowed one million people to return to their communities, but 300,000 remain forcibly displaced according to the UN. Israeli troops continue to destroy villages in occupied areas while the US avoids pressuring Israel to advance with new "pilot zones" where Israeli withdrawal would allow the Lebanese army to deploy and dismantle the militia. Since June, Netanyahu's government has only ceded one of the 68 occupied municipalities, deviating from the truce text and demanding Hezbollah's complete disarmament before retreating.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz claims the army has demolished over 60 villages and 23,000 housing units used as bases by militiamen in that area. He also stated they would occupy and depopulate Nabatieh, the second most populous southern city, if Hezbollah joins a potential Iranian retaliation against Israel. Satellite images show Israel perpetrated much of this destruction during the ceasefire while building bases and roads. The Lebanese news agency registered detonations or fires in more than a dozen localities over the weekend.
Andre Bou Maachar, a former Lebanese army general and director of the Center for Research and Studies on Loyalty to the Homeland, argues that the lack of reciprocal commitments damages Beirut's bet on resolving the conflict through negotiation. He notes that the Israeli occupation "renews the legitimacy of armed resistance," which is compatible with disagreeing with the group's military decisions. The militia is working to decentralize operations using low-cost tools, such as fiber-optic cable drones that have killed about 40 Israelis since March, mostly soldiers in Lebanon. Recent seizures included C4 explosives, previously used for political assassinations in Lebanon but now potentially incorporated into these drones.
The arrival of funds from Iran implies new ways to evade US sanctions. State Department spokesperson Tommy Piggot denied the existence of these transfers. According to Reuters, intermediaries charged a 20% commission, reflecting the risks of dealing with the Islamist movement. However, the reported 178 million euros received by the group falls far short of the 24 billion euros Beirut estimates are needed for reconstruction. Various residents told El País they have not yet received the aid announced by Hezbollah, estimated at 12,500 euros per damaged residence. "People are rebuilding out of their own pockets," explained a woman from the south.
While the group's unpopularity grows in other parts of Lebanon, she noted that in the predominantly Shia southern region, these deficiencies do not alter general support for "armed resistance," an idea many see as extending beyond Hezbollah. "Some blame it for certain problems," she said, "but a broad sector remains firm and patient in its defense, considering that a different relationship with Israel is not possible."
Sources: El País Internacional.