European officials are watching the US midterm elections closely, despite their focus on domestic issues. Decisions made by President Donald Trump have affected people and businesses in Europe, including through tariff uncertainty that has weighed on German industry and higher food and fuel prices linked to the war in Iran, according to the report.
Some in Brussels hope that a change in Congress could help shift US policy towards a more predictable relationship with the EU. Rasmus Andresen, a European Parliament member who sits on its US delegation, said there was significant hope that different majorities could lead to a course correction in transatlantic relations.
But a strong Democratic result could also anger Trump, warned Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee. Lange said the administration might revive the trade dispute that has been largely dormant for months. Tariffs on European medicines and machinery are among the risks, which could prompt a response from the EU. He argued that Europe should maintain a firm position, saying Trump offered neither security nor predictability.
A Democratic majority in both chambers would not necessarily be able to undo tariffs already imposed. Trump has relied on executive orders for his trade policy, and the president’s authority in this area is broad. EU lawmakers and Commission representatives are instead placing some hope in US courts, which have already ruled that many of the tariffs were unlawful. Judges could also assess whether the administration is correctly interpreting older laws cited as the basis for further tariffs.
On defence, some EU members are concerned that Trump could direct his frustration towards NATO allies. The president can decide to withdraw US troops from Europe, and the report says the Pentagon announced in May that it planned to pull 5,000 soldiers out of Germany. A report on the US troop presence is expected in December.
Hertie School president Daniela Schwarzer cautioned that a serious electoral defeat could make Trump’s foreign policy more erratic if he sought to divert attention from losing power at home. Congress can influence foreign policy through legislation and resolutions, she said, but Trump has shown that he can disregard them. The report also notes that Congress has not authorised the war in Iran.
A Democratic-controlled Congress could therefore limit Trump domestically, while leaving Brussels concerned that he might respond through trade or foreign policy.
Sources: Tagesschau.