According to CNN projections, Democratic state representative James Talarico is set to win the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, delivering a surprising defeat to the state's Republican Attorney General, Ken Paxton. At 37 years old, Talarico becomes the first Democrat elected to represent Texas in the Senate in 38 years and the first Democrat to win any statewide contest in the state since 1994.

This victory stands as one of the most significant surprises of the 2026 midterm elections, occurring in a state where President Donald Trump secured a margin of nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 election. Before launching his campaign last September, Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian and former teacher from Round Rock, was not widely known across Texas.

Talarico managed to garner support both within the state and nationally by centering his faith as a core pillar of his message while broadening his appeal to attract independent and Republican voters. His campaign also benefited from facing a weakened Republican opponent; Paxton has been embroiled in various controversies, including a divorce filed by his wife on "biblical grounds."

Paxton's legal history includes a 2015 securities fraud charge and an impeachment trial in the Texas House of Representatives in 2023, though he was later acquitted by the state Senate. In 2024, he reached an agreement with prosecutors to compensate victims of the fraud case, thereby avoiding a criminal trial.

Sources: CNN Brasil.