Political conditions appear to favor Democrats in the U.S. midterm elections, according to Daniela Melo, a political science professor at Boston University. She said recent polling has shown Democratic support rising in closely contested races, although the Senate remains too tight to predict confidently before votes are counted.
Melo described the midterms as a test of the party in power and a referendum on the president. Democrats have been in the minority in both chambers of Congress over the past two years, she said, limiting their ability to oppose the Republican agenda through formal institutions. Winning even one chamber would give them a greater role in Washington.
She pointed to inflation, higher living costs and the unpopular U.S. intervention in Iran as factors weighing on Trump and Republicans. In her account, dissatisfaction also extends to some voters who supported Trump previously, including young men and Latino voters, with immigration, economic and tariff policies contributing to discontent.
Turnout will be critical, Melo said, since midterm elections generally draw fewer voters than presidential contests. The voters who do participate tend to be more politically engaged, making it important for both parties to mobilize their core supporters. Trump has urged his base to vote, but Melo questioned whether that effort would be enough amid frustration over prices and the cost of diesel.
She added that rural communities and industries such as agriculture and fishing have been affected by higher diesel costs and tariff policy. Some former Trump voters may instead stay home or vote for Democrats, she said, making participation as important as any shift in voter preference.
Sources: Observador.