Voting concludes on Election Day, with control of both chambers of Congress at stake. The first results are expected from Kentucky and Indiana at 6 p.m. ET, though close races in many states may take days or weeks to call as ballots are counted.
More than 54 million people have already cast ballots, nearly half the total votes recorded in the previous midterm election. Available early-voting data show Democrats with a double-digit advantage, but Republican turnout on Election Day will be a key factor: Republican voters are more likely to vote in person, and many competitive races are in Republican-leaning states and districts.
Democrats are favored to win the House, where they need to flip three seats to take control. The political landscape has shifted in their favor over the past month. Republicans used rare mid-decade redistricting in an effort to protect their position, but it may not be enough to retain the chamber.
The Senate race is less certain. Democrats need to gain four seats for a majority, a possibility that has emerged amid strong Democratic candidates and a challenging national environment for Republicans. Democrats are favored to flip North Carolina, while other contests are toss-ups or give Republicans a slight edge. Five Republican-held toss-up seats, apart from Maine, are in states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Michigan is Republicans’ top target. A Republican win there would change Democrats’ path to control. High Republican turnout could limit Democrats to one Senate gain, while lower Republican turnout could lead to losses of as many as six or seven seats for the party and a Democratic majority.
With many races expected to be close, election-night returns may not settle control of Congress. States will continue counting ballots after polls close, and final outcomes could take days or weeks.
Sources: NPR News.