Voters across the United States are casting ballots in Tuesday's midterm elections to select representatives for the House of Representatives and a portion of the Senate. This election serves as a crucial referendum on President Donald Trump's administration, occurring at the halfway point of his term. With all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats up for grabs, Republicans are attempting to maintain their majority in both chambers despite rising dissatisfaction regarding the cost of living, polarization over immigration, and a decline in the President's popularity.
A shift in the composition of Congress could significantly hinder the passage of Trump's legislative projects and expand the opposition's oversight powers. The cost of living has emerged as a primary concern for voters; a Reuters/Ipsos poll released in October indicated that half of registered voters identified this issue as the most important factor in their decision. Respondents highlighted health care, gasoline, food, and housing as domestic expenses requiring immediate attention from lawmakers.
Fuel prices have surged following the outbreak of war between the United States and Israel against Iran in February. According to the American Automobile Association, the national average price for gasoline reached $4.28 per gallon, an increase of $1.20 compared to the same period last year. Diesel prices climbed to $6.32, representing a $2.70 rise over 12 months. Additionally, food costs rose by 1.8% in the last year according to the US Department of Labor Statistics, while housing prices increased by 2.1% based on data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Health care remains central to the debate. The Republicans' main legislative achievement was extending a tax cut that reduced spending on Medicaid and other health programs by approximately $1 trillion. Conversely, Democrats triggered a government shutdown last year in an attempt to extend expiring health subsidies that benefited 24 million Americans. The opposition has promised to prioritize reducing the cost of living if they gain control of either chamber and intends to hold the government accountable for alleged corruption.
Immigration is another pivotal issue. Preliminary data from the Department of Homeland Security indicates a 95% drop in the number of immigrants detained at the southwest border compared to the administration of former President Joe Biden. The agency also reported that, for the first time in history, there were no releases by Border Patrol during the fiscal year. However, the government's immigration policy faces criticism following fatal confrontations involving federal agents in Maine, Minnesota, and Texas.
The death of two US citizens in Minnesota sparked a reaction among Democrats, leading some candidates to advocate for tougher stances against immigration operations. Proposals from party members include impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Amidst a funding impasse, Republicans unilaterally approved a $70 billion bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol through the end of Trump's term. Tensions escalated this month after immigration authorities conducted an operation at the Washington residence of Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, drawing condemnation from her party. Sources familiar with the case suggest one possible objective of the investigation is to strip Omar of her US citizenship and deport her.
President Trump himself has become a central element of the contest. Despite his falling popularity, he has intensified his campaign participation, holding rallies in various states leading up to the election. During a Republican convention in September, Trump urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot, promising $5,000 to every adult American citizen if Republicans maintain their majority in both the House and Senate.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday showed that only 32% of Americans approve of Trump, a figure close to the historic low of 31%. A CNN survey from October 21 revealed that 49% of respondents prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to just 39% who favor the Republican. Democrats argue that the President has failed to fulfill campaign promises regarding the cost of living and ending international conflicts, with the war against Iran further exacerbating political fatigue due to its impact on fuel prices.
Maintaining Republican control of Congress is vital for Trump to advance his legislative agenda in the second half of his term. If Democrats secure a majority in either chamber, they will have greater capacity to block government proposals and scrutinize the administration's actions.
Sources: CNN Brasil.