Latino voters are emerging as a potentially decisive force in the U.S. midterm elections, with early voting figures showing a sharp increase in their participation. The elections will determine control of Congress and influence the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidential term.
More than 41 million Americans had voted early four days before Election Day, nine million more than the 32 million who voted early in the 2022 midterms. Of that total, 5.2 million ballots came from Latino voters, according to data presented by Voto Latino. Their share reached 12.75% of all votes cast, compared with 8% at the same point in 2018. The proportion of white voters fell from 77% to 69% over the same period.
Maria Teresa Kumar, president of Voto Latino, described the figures as the “tsunami” her organization had long anticipated. Latino voters account for at least 20% of the registered electorate in nearly two dozen closely contested House races across Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas. They could also influence Senate contests, including the race in Texas.
Texas has become a key test of whether Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 are shifting away from Republican candidates. Hispanic voters there have cast 1.75 million early ballots, representing 28% of the total, compared with 20% in 2022 and 17% in 2018. At the same point in 2018, they had cast 847,000 ballots.
The state is hosting a competitive Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. Forty percent of Texas’ population is Hispanic, while Democrat Gina Hinojosa is also seeking to change the party in control of the governor’s office, currently held by Republican Greg Abbott. In the 15th Congressional District, where 80% of residents are Latino, Democrat Bobby Pulido is challenging Republican Monica De La Cruz in a district Trump won in 2024.
The election campaign has focused heavily on Latino voters. Trump has visited Texas three times in the past month to support the Republican candidate, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has invested more than one million dollars in outreach to Latino voters in South Texas, according to Suzan DelBene.
Economic pressures and immigration enforcement are driving the increased mobilization. Many Latinos who backed Trump in 2024 were motivated by expectations of economic improvement and his promise to deport migrants with criminal records. Two years later, the high cost of living and concerns about arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement have become reasons for opposing his candidates.
Hector Barba, president of Mi Familia Vota, said the organization was seeing its highest level of enthusiasm among Latino voters in 30 years. Mi Familia Vota has joined LULAC, UnidosUS and Latino Victory in the Vamos a Votar coalition, which has invested $22.1 million in registering, informing and mobilizing Latino voters. Barba said the effort is not aligned with the Democratic Party but is directed against Trump.
Trump’s support among Hispanic voters has fallen in recent polling. According to The New York Times’ Times Voter Trends report, he received 44% of the Latino vote in 2024, compared with 28% in 2016. In the latest survey cited by the report, his support had dropped to 31%.
Latino participation has historically lagged behind the broader electorate. In the 2022 midterms, 37% of Latinos voted, compared with 52% of voters overall, according to Census data. In the 2024 presidential election, half of Latino voters abstained, compared with 34% of the total electorate.
Voter registration requirements, concerns about sharing personal information, language barriers and a sense of political underrepresentation have traditionally discouraged participation. This year, however, Latino voters are receiving more outreach from campaigns and political groups. A Pew Research analysis published on October 16 found that 53% of Latinos were highly motivated to vote, up from 41% four years earlier, while 45% said they had thought a great deal about the election, compared with 24% in 2022.
Young Latino voters are another focus of the campaigns. More than four million Hispanic Americans have turned 18 since the last elections, making Latinos the fastest-growing electoral group. In Texas, young Latino voters had already cast about 305,000 ballots, around 65,000 more than the 240,000 they cast in the 2024 presidential election at the comparable stage.
Younger voters are also considering issues such as the environment and the war in Gaza, while sharing broader concerns about the economy and the impact of the Trump administration’s immigration policies on their communities.
Sources: El País Internacional.