Donald Trump and his Republican allies have secured an advantage in the fight to redraw congressional districts, creating more favorable conditions for Republican candidates in nine additional districts compared with Democrats. Yet the gains may not be enough to preserve the party’s majority in the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s elections, according to the analysis cited by the source report.
All House seats are being contested. District boundaries are generally reviewed every ten years after the national census, so that each representative speaks for a roughly similar number of people. But changes outside that cycle have become more common and intensified under Trump. The practice of drawing boundaries to improve a party’s electoral prospects is known as gerrymandering.
The latest round began in 2025, when Texas Republicans proposed redrawing districts in ways that would spread Democratic voters across new Republican-majority seats. California Democrats then advanced their own map changes to counter the potential gains in Texas. Other states pursued changes, with proposals facing political and legal challenges.
A consequential Supreme Court decision in April blocked a Louisiana redistricting effort and limited the scope of the Voting Rights Act. The ruling allows states, in practice, to use the racial makeup of the population as a valid factor when drawing districts. The report describes the decision as a win for Trump, noting that Black voters tend to favor Democrats and could be dispersed among districts with white majorities.
Republicans created 15 districts expected to be easy wins for their candidates across Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. Democrats redrew maps in California and Utah to produce six more favorable districts. Redistricting efforts were blocked politically or in court in six states: Missouri, Indiana, New York, Maryland, Virginia and South Carolina.
Despite the Republican gains, a New York Times analysis cited in the report found that 204 districts are highly likely to elect Democrats, compared with 181 likely Republican seats. A simple majority requires 218 seats. Another 16 districts lean Democratic and 17 lean Republican, while 17 are considered unpredictable.
Those competitive seats may pose a particular risk for Republicans: Trump carried 16 of them in 2024, including 10 by double-digit margins, and seven are currently represented by Republicans. The report says those races could therefore be easier for the party on paper, but remain vulnerable to a Democratic wave.
The factors cited include Trump’s low approval ratings and shifting voter preferences, particularly among Latino voters. After supporting Trump in greater numbers in 2024 than in previous elections, Latino voters have become less supportive amid rising living costs and his aggressive campaign against immigrants.
A poll by NBC News and Telemundo found that 59% of Latino voters preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 35% who favored Republican control. The report contrasts that with 2024 exit polls, which showed 46% of Latino voters backing Trump and 51% supporting Kamala Harris. Latino voters are especially significant in Texas and Florida, two states central to Republican redistricting efforts.
The same poll found that just 27% of Latino voters approved of Trump’s performance. Reuters/Ipsos polling, meanwhile, indicates that overall disapproval of the president’s administration is at record levels, just above 30%. A Gallup poll conducted this month also found that only 43% of voters believe their district’s representative deserves reelection, the lowest share since 1994, adding another challenge for the Republicans who currently control Congress.
Sources: Folha Mundo.