Midterm election night will feature hundreds of contests for Congress, governor's offices and state legislatures. Six indicators could offer an early sense of which party is positioned to control Congress and how voter groups are responding to President Donald Trump's second term.
The first signals may come from Indiana, Kentucky and Florida. Results in Indiana's 5th Congressional District and Kentucky's 6th could show whether Republican turnout is weaker than expected. Both are Republican-held seats that have become more competitive. A close race or Democratic victory in either district could point to a broader Democratic wave.
Florida's 22nd District, currently held by a Democrat but redrawn to favor Republicans, will also be closely watched. The state's 27th District, which Trump carried by double digits, could provide an indication of how Latino voters are casting their ballots.
Independent voters are another important measure. Although they tend to participate less often in midterm elections, Republicans have performed well during the Trump era when they won at least 46% of independents. The party has struggled when it fell below that level, reflecting broader political shifts among blue-collar white voters, Democrats and college-educated white voters.
Black turnout in Michigan could shape the Senate battle. The state's Senate race is important to the balance of power: a Republican victory would increase the number of Republican-held seats Democrats would need to win in order to take control. Abdul El-Sayed's Democratic campaign will depend heavily on turnout and margins among Black voters in Wayne County, including the Detroit area. During the Trump era, Democrats have generally needed at least 68% in Wayne County to win Michigan, unless they compensate with stronger suburban performance.
Young voters are another potential advantage for Democrats, although their turnout typically drops sharply in midterm elections. Since 1992, an average of 43% of registered voters aged 18 to 29 have voted in presidential elections, compared with 21% in midterms. Democrats have generally performed strongly when they won this group by more than 20 percentage points. In 2022, they won young voters by 28 points, lost nine House seats but gained a Senate seat.
Texas will offer two additional tests. One is the difference between the vote totals for Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Republican Ken Paxton. Democrat James Talarico faces a difficult path in a state Trump won by 14 points in 2024, and previous polling has underestimated Republican support. In 2018, Ted Cruz won his Senate race despite receiving about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott. A gap of more than 400,000 votes between Abbott and Paxton could therefore be significant for Talarico.
The other Texas test is the Latino vote in South Texas. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke won 64% of Latino voters, who made up 26% of the electorate, according to exit polls. Talarico would need to exceed those figures and improve on O'Rourke's results in heavily Latino counties including Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb and Nueces. Results in the growing Dallas suburbs, including Collin, Denton and Tarrant counties, could also matter.
Finally, exit polls will show how voters identify politically. Democrats made up 31% of the electorate in 2024, the lowest level listed in the data, after registering 33% in 2022 and 37% in both 2020 and 2018. Strong opposition to Trump could encourage Democratic voters to participate, with 53% of likely voters in the latest NPR poll saying they strongly disapproved of his performance.
The Michigan Senate race and the contest for Michigan's 7th Congressional District will provide a test of whether progressive Democratic candidates can win in politically competitive areas. The results could also influence debates over Democratic unity and the party's ideological direction ahead of the 2028 presidential primary.
Sources: NPR News.