Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but the US congressional elections will shape how freely he can pursue his policies over the next two years. Voters are choosing every member of the House of Representatives and roughly a third of the Senate, with the results determining control of Congress and the extent of its oversight of the administration.
The outcome is also being followed closely in Berlin. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a committed transatlanticist, faces disagreements with Washington over issues including security, defense and tariffs. He expects the United States to continue changing its foreign and economic policies regardless of the election results, and says Germany will have to respond accordingly.
If Democrats gain control of either or both chambers, they could block legislation, launch investigations and intensify scrutiny of the administration. A third impeachment proceeding against Trump would also become possible. But a difficult domestic environment could prompt the president to focus more heavily on foreign policy, where his authority is strongest.
Green Party politician Omid Nouripour hopes Democrats will make gains and strengthen congressional oversight. He has also urged Germany to focus on its own strengths and reduce dependencies rather than continually trying to anticipate Trump’s decisions. Nouripour’s particular concern is that the US could further reduce its support for Ukraine. Trump recently put sanctions against Russia on hold by decree, despite Congress having spent more than a year negotiating the package before approving it by large majorities in both chambers.
Confidence in the United States has been strained by Trump’s approach to Russia, disputes over Greenland and tariff policy. A Bertelsmann Stiftung survey cited in the report found that only one in four people in Germany considered the US a trustworthy partner, although two-thirds wanted closer cooperation where it made sense.
Brandon Bohrn, a specialist in transatlantic relations, does not expect a change in US foreign policy based on the new congressional balance. He argues that Trump does not need to win another election and may not prioritize the future of the Republican Party. Europe, Bohrn cautions, should not assume that a Democratic victory would moderate Trump’s approach; it could instead become more volatile and confrontational.
The US is also reviewing its troop presence and military structure in Europe. The administration plans to announce later this year whether, and to what extent, it will reduce its military presence, including in Germany. The president remains commander-in-chief regardless of which party controls Congress.
Sources: Tagesschau.