During a debate at the UN Security Council this Thursday, journalist Fareed Zakaria declared that the decisive weapon of the coming decade will not be a hypersonic missile, but rather the algorithm. This assessment highlights a shift where artificial intelligence is fundamentally altering maritime security and power relations between nations. The stakes are particularly high given that more than 90% of global merchandise trade transits through the oceans, while submarine cables carry over 99% of data exchanged between continents.
Traditional measures of naval power, such as ship tonnage, armor thickness, and missile range, are becoming obsolete in an era defined by autonomous drones, cyberattacks, and unmanned vessels. Zakaria noted that a single autonomous drone can now threaten warships costing billions of dollars, while algorithms can identify clandestine tankers among thousands of other vessels. Furthermore, cyberattacks have the potential to paralyze ports without a single shot being fired. Conflicts in the Red Sea and the Black Sea have already demonstrated the growing importance of maritime drones and remote-controlled systems.
The application of AI is revolutionizing maritime surveillance by processing vast amounts of data from radars, sonars, satellites, and commercial tracking systems. This technology can identify suspicious behaviors even when vessels attempt to evade detection by disabling their transponders. By cross-referencing satellite imagery, thermal signatures, weather conditions, and last known positions, AI can track ships that would otherwise disappear from radar. Additionally, unmanned vessels offer a cost-effective way to extend surveillance capabilities for months without requiring additional crew members.
However, these advancements introduce significant risks, particularly regarding cybersecurity. Michail Bletsas, a Greek cybersecurity specialist, described modern commercial ships as hyperconnected systems of systems, essentially floating computer centers. A study published in September by Honeywell revealed that 87% of maritime sector respondents reported suffering a serious cybersecurity incident affecting their operating systems in the last twelve months. Despite this, only 21% possess a complete inventory of their connected equipment, even though 88% believe their protective devices are sufficiently mature.
The consequences of such intrusions extend beyond simple IT disruptions; compromising navigation or propulsion systems could turn a 300-meter tanker into a threat to other ships, port facilities, and the environment. Submarine cables represent another sensitive target, prompting calls for enhanced monitoring via satellites and acoustic sensors. Zakaria warned that adversaries may not seek to sink ships but rather to poison data, potentially tricking algorithms into ignoring hostile submarines or misidentifying civilian ferries as threats.
In response to these challenges, Courtenay Rattray, a senior UN official, advocated for a prudent approach where technology serves humanity. She emphasized the need for effective human control, clearly defined responsibilities, and verification mechanisms to prevent errors and involuntary escalation caused by automated decision-making. While the International Maritime Organization adopted a non-binding code for autonomous ships in May, states have yet to agree on common rules. As technology advances faster than its regulatory framework, the oceans risk becoming as contested in the digital realm as they have been on maps for centuries.
Sources: UN News Spanish.