A Democratic victory in Tuesday’s US midterm elections could intensify scrutiny of Donald Trump’s administration on issues affecting Brazil, including trade tariffs, sanctions and US activity in Latin America. Analysts say a shift in control of Congress could open the way to investigations, though it would not necessarily change the president’s policy toward Brazil.
Democratic lawmakers have recently pressed the State Department over the administration’s approach to Brazil. In September, 31 members of Congress urged the Trump administration not to interfere in Brazil’s elections and to recognize the result. On October 30, another 25 representatives sought explanations about the US government’s role in Flávio Bolsonaro’s departure from Brazil and entry into the United States. A separate letter from three members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus called on Trump to recognize Lula’s victory.
A Democratic majority in the House could investigate the circumstances surrounding Flávio Bolsonaro’s US visa and the role of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to Mark Langevin, a senior analyst at Horizon Engage. The scope of such efforts would depend on the election results. Even if Democrats won both chambers, they would face hurdles to passing legislation opposed by Trump.
Voters are choosing all 435 members of the House and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats. Republicans currently control both chambers, giving Trump a supportive congressional majority. Nick Zimmerman, a senior researcher at the Inter-American Dialogue and a former White House director for Brazil and the Southern Cone, said a Democratic-controlled Congress would be more likely to investigate the administration and demand information than to directly reshape policy.
Trade could also come under scrutiny. Zimmerman said lawmakers might examine how the administration sets tariffs, negotiates exemptions and responds to lobbying. Such inquiries would not necessarily focus on Brazil, but could include trade negotiations involving the country and potentially affect future tariff policy.
Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, likewise said a Democratic majority could increase oversight of Trump’s tariff decisions and encourage the administration to weigh them more carefully. Proposals under discussion would give Congress a greater role, including through notification requirements or by requiring legislative approval for certain trade measures. Santos said a Democratic majority would raise the political cost of tariff decisions, but reversing them would be unlikely given the need for bipartisan support and the possibility of presidential vetoes.
Lucas de Souza Martins, a professor at Temple University, said the State Department could also face increased oversight. Rubio’s policy in Latin America could attract attention, he said, with implications for Brazil.
Greater congressional scrutiny would not necessarily ease US pressure on Brazil. Santos said that if domestic priorities became harder to pursue, Trump might devote more attention to foreign relations, where the executive branch has greater room to act. Zimmerman added that the political consequences of a Republican setback would depend on Trump’s response, which could be conciliatory or aggressive, and might also prompt some allies to distance themselves from him ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
Sources: Folha Mundo.