International sugar prices experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, November 3, driven by expectations of a larger global supply. In New York, the March futures contract dropped 3.83%, closing at 18.33 cents per pound, marking the lowest level in five weeks. According to market analysis from Barchart, this downward trend is primarily linked to a substantial increase in production within India.
Data from the National Federation of Sugar Mill Cooperatives in India reveals that domestic manufacturing reached 845,000 tons by the end of October for the current season. This volume represents more than eight times the amount recorded during the same period last year. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) confirmed on Monday that the 2026/27 harvest began according to schedule, with approximately 107 mills already operational. Furthermore, the country concluded the 2025/26 season with remaining stocks of 3.6 million tons, ensuring a comfortable supply position.
Despite the outlook for increased availability, weather conditions remain a key factor for market observers. India recorded rainfall volumes 12.6% below average during the monsoon season from June to September, representing the lowest index in 11 years.
Coffee futures also faced pressure due to currency factors and greater product availability on the international market. The December contract in New York fell 2.79%, closing at $2.83 per pound. Barchart analysts noted that the depreciation of the Brazilian real contributed to this negative movement, as the currency dropped more than 1% and approached its lowest level in over 10 months against the dollar. A weaker real tends to stimulate Brazilian exports by allowing exporters to secure higher revenue in local currency.
The currency scenario gained additional attention following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory in last week's presidential elections. Brazil holds a prominent position in global trade, accounting for approximately 35% to 40% of world production and nearly 30% of exports, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Additionally, Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta coffee, reported shipments of 114,000 tons in October, a 61% year-over-year increase. From January to October 2026, Vietnamese exports totaled 1.57 million tons, an 18.8% rise compared to the same period last year.
Cocoa prices were also pressured by increased global availability. The December futures contract in New York closed down 0.39% at $5,414 per ton, reaching a five-week low. Barchart reported that exchange reserves have risen consistently since the start of the year, reaching 3,702,175 sacks on Monday, the highest volume in two and a half years. This stockpile increase reinforces the perception of greater product availability. The depreciation of the Brazilian real is also influencing cocoa supply, potentially encouraging Brazilian exporters to expand external sales.
In other commodities, orange juice futures for January delivery rose 2.49% to $1.42 per pound. Conversely, cotton futures for December delivery fell 0.22%, trading at 77.04 cents per pound. Barchart attributed the cotton price movement to USDA crop progress data, which indicated that 92% of the US crop had open bolls, below the five-year average of 95%, while harvesting reached 63% of the area against a historical average of 65%.
Sources: CNN Brasil.