The United States will hold its midterm elections tomorrow amid a tense and highly polarised political climate. Voters will renew the entire House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate and 36 governorships, while also choosing hundreds of mayors and thousands of state and local officials. A total of 145 referendums will be held on various issues.

More than 50 million Americans have already voted by mail, including President Donald Trump and Pope Leo XIV. Projections point to strong prospects for the Democratic opposition, which could achieve its largest House majority since 2009, helped by Hispanic voters.

Polls indicate that Republicans are likely to lose their House majority and could also see their current advantage in the Senate threatened. Such a result would significantly weaken Trump during the final two years of his term, limiting his ability to pass legislation, negotiate budgets, make appointments and advance his political agenda.

The elections have become a referendum on Trump himself and on Trumpism. Trump has urged voters to support him even though his name is not on the ballot. Democrats have focused their campaign on what they describe as chaotic policies, corruption, nepotism and inflation, as well as the consequences of the president’s decision to enter a war with Iran, encouraged by Benjamin Netanyahu, from which he has struggled to withdraw.

The midterms are therefore serving as an assessment of the president’s record and his movement. Democrats are competing not only in closely contested states but also in areas Trump won decisively in 2024. If they take the House, they could block or amend legislation, launch investigations and increase scrutiny of the administration. A Democratic Senate would give them greater influence over appointments and presidential negotiations.

However, an electoral victory would also require Democrats to turn public frustration into concrete alternatives. Otherwise, they could benefit from opposition to Trump without rebuilding lasting confidence in their own leadership. The central question is whether discontent with the president will produce sustained Democratic turnout or whether Republicans will succeed in mobilising less motivated supporters. Democrats have reasons for optimism, but no guaranteed victory.

Trump’s approval rating is below 40%, and he has spent months casting doubt on the electoral system. He has repeatedly suggested that fraud will occur if Republicans lose and has said he will accept the result only if the election is “honest”. He has also pressured officials involved in certifying results, used the federal apparatus to intimidate states and restricted voting access under the justification of verifying citizenship.

The acceptance of the results, the transparency of the process and the responsibility shown by candidates will be as important as the distribution of political power. Voters will need to see that their participation has consequences and that the rules are respected, including by those who lose.

If Republicans retain control of Congress, Trump would have a clear path to pursue his agenda and strengthen his influence over institutions, presenting the result as proof that Americans chose “common sense” over the “internal enemy”. If Democrats win, as polls suggest, Trump is expected to claim fraud, intensify polarisation among his supporters and further undermine trust in the electoral system. The United States will not choose its president tomorrow, but it will determine the future of Trump and Trumpism.

Sources: La Vanguardia.