Forecasts indicating an El Niño peak in November have heightened concerns regarding contrasting rainfall and drought conditions in key Brazilian agricultural regions. Market reports and discussions among producers and cooperatives since May suggest these weather patterns could complicate harvests through the first half of 2027, with negative effects potentially lasting longer depending on the specific crop.
In the Center-South region, excessive rainfall is negatively impacting winter grains and sugarcane. In Paraná, heavy rains have compromised both productivity and grain quality. According to a report from the Rural Economy Department (Deral) released on October 29, total production is projected to reach 2.84 million tons, representing a 28% decline compared to 2025. Wheat estimates stand at 1.9 million tons, a 34% drop driven by reduced area and yield, while rain during harvest has also degraded quality for the baking industry. Barley lost its chance for a record production despite an expanded planting area, with projections falling to 492,000 tons, or 2% below 2025 levels. Oats, rye, and triticale also recorded reductions in both area and productivity.
The sugarcane sector in the Center-South faces similar challenges due to prolonged rain in June and July. This excess moisture delayed crop maturation and limited the accumulation of Recoverable Total Sugars (ATR), a key quality indicator. Market estimates suggest a harvest delay exceeding 20%, with crushing operations potentially extending from their traditional November end date into December or even January. Approximately 50 million tons of sugarcane may remain unharvested this season, which could also affect the performance of the 2027/28 crop cycle starting in March. In contrast, the Northeast region faces drought concerns, with production estimated at 55 million tons compared to 56.3 million tons in the previous harvest.
In the Amazon, the nut industry is grappling with the long-term effects of climate stress. Due to a 12-to-18-month cycle between flowering and fruiting, current weather conditions influence future harvests. Patricia da Costa, a researcher at Embrapa Environment, noted that while the crop cycle from November to April has a relatively favorable outlook, the potential recurrence of intense heat and drought poses risks for subsequent cycles. Historical data from IBGE shows production volatility linked to El Niño events; after severe episodes in 2015 and 2016, output fell to roughly 23,000 tons in 2017. Although production recovered to approximately 38,000 tons in 2022, it dropped again to 26,000 tons following the phenomenon's recurrence in 2023 and 2024. Droughts also hinder logistics by making river transport difficult.
Conversely, coffee crops in the Southeast and South are benefiting from the increased moisture. Recent updates from World Weather indicate good soil moisture availability, with significant rainfall recorded in Southern Minas Gerais and São Paulo, ranging between 18 and 70 millimeters. Precipitation also reached the Cerrado Mineiro, Espírito Santo, and Paraná. While forecasts predict continued rain in these areas, current updates do not provide specific estimates regarding the impact on coffee productivity or quality.
The outlook for soybeans remains mixed. A study by Serasa Experian suggests that if productivity mirrors the performance seen during the 2023/24 El Niño event, production could fall 9.7% below a neutral climate scenario. This difference equates to 17.6 million tons and a potential impact of R$ 33 billion on the Gross Value of Production based on October 2026 prices. However, StoneX has raised its harvest estimate to a record 184.95 million tons, a 0.9% increase from previous projections, citing accelerated planting and favorable early-stage weather in Mato Grosso. The divergence in forecasts reflects different methodologies, with Serasa simulating climate risks while StoneX projects based on current conditions.
Sources: CNN Brasil.