Polling stations are opening across the United States in midterm elections that could reshape control of Congress. Democrats are heavily favoured to win the House, but the Senate remains highly competitive. Republicans hold 53 of its 100 seats; Democrats need a net gain of four to take control, with Vice-President JD Vance able to break a 50-50 tie.

The Cook Political Report lists six Republican-held Senate races as toss-ups. The wider battleground includes nine Republican defences and three Democratic ones: Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. The latter two appear relatively secure for Democrats, while Michigan is rated a toss-up.

North Carolina could provide Democrats with their first pickup. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring, and the party’s main Senate super PAC cancelled its remaining advertising for candidate Michael Whatley in October. Democrat Roy Cooper leads Whatley by eight points in polls cited in the report.

Ohio and Texas offer Democrats larger potential gains. In Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown has a narrow lead over Republican Jon Husted in the RealClearPolitics average. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is effectively tied with Republican Ken Paxton in a recent poll. Paxton’s unfavourable ratings could pose a challenge, though Republicans lead other statewide contests in a University of Houston survey.

Alaska and Kansas are also competitive. Democrat Mary Peltola leads Senator Dan Sullivan by two points in a New York Times/Siena poll, within the margin of error. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is ahead of Senator Roger Marshall in the RealClearPolitics average, despite the state’s history of voting Republican in Senate races.

Other close contests include Maine, where Troy Jackson leads Senator Susan Collins in the polling average, and Iowa, where Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson are separated by one point in a Times/Siena poll. In South Carolina, Senator Darline Graham has a narrow lead over Democrat Annie Andrews. Nebraska appears more favourable to Republicans, with Senator Pete Ricketts six points ahead of independent Dan Osborn in the latest Times/Siena poll.

Michigan could offer Republicans a route to holding the chamber. A Republican victory there would leave Democrats needing five pickups elsewhere. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 5.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average, although a Trafalgar Group poll puts his advantage at one point. The race has also seen divisions among Democrats, after Congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers following a dispute with El-Sayed’s campaign.

The outcome may depend on whether Democratic enthusiasm translates into votes. Polls have generally favoured Democrats, but past elections have shown that polling can miss in either party’s favour. Turnout across the close races will determine whether Republicans retain their Senate majority or Democrats gain control.

Sources: Euronews English.