The United States holds its midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats up for election. Voters will also choose governors in 36 states, along with state legislators and local officials.
The elections take place halfway through President Donald Trump’s second term, amid concerns about the cost of living, immigration, foreign policy and the direction of American democracy. The results will determine whether Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress or Democrats gain the power to constrain the president’s agenda.
Republicans enter the vote with narrow majorities. In the Senate, they hold 53 seats, compared with 47 for the Democratic caucus, which includes two independents aligned with the party. In the House, Republicans have 218 seats, Democrats 214, and one independent is aligned with Republicans; two seats are vacant. A majority in a full House requires 218 votes. In the Senate, 51 seats generally constitute a majority, though the vice president can break ties.
A Democratic takeover of the House would give the party control of committees and the ability to hold hearings, seek documents and call officials to testify. It could also block Republican legislation, complicate budget negotiations and expand congressional investigations. The House can approve impeachment charges, but removing a president requires conviction by a two-thirds vote in the Senate.
If Democrats win the Senate, they could shape the legislative agenda and increase oversight of the executive branch. The chamber also confirms presidential nominees for senior government posts, embassies and federal courts, including the Supreme Court. However, many measures require 60 votes to overcome the filibuster, so control of both chambers would not necessarily enable either party to pass its entire agenda.
Midterms are held every four years, halfway through a presidential term, as part of the biennial congressional elections. They are widely treated as a judgment on a president’s first two years in office. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in these elections. Trump began his second term with Republicans controlling both chambers; losing either would make it harder to advance proposals on taxes, immigration and federal spending.
Voting rules vary by state. Americans can vote early, by mail or in person, depending on local requirements. More than 53 million people had voted by Sunday, November 1, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, compared with 45.9 million at the same point in 2022. About 30 million had voted in person and 24 million by mail. Counting may take several days, particularly in close contests and places with large numbers of mail ballots.
The campaign has unfolded amid low approval of Trump and voter dissatisfaction with the economy. A Pew Research Center survey published in October found stronger Democratic engagement and identified the economy as voters’ leading concern. In a separate survey conducted from September 28 to October 4, 84% of registered voters said the economy was very important to their vote. The future of democracy followed at 73%, health care at 68% and education at 62%. Immigration was very important to 59% overall, including 72% of Republican voters and 53% of Democrats.
The election campaign has also included concerns about Trump’s response to a possible defeat. He called for Republicans to take control of voting in at least 15 localities and said the party should “nationalize” the election process. In March, he signed an order seeking stricter mail-voting rules and federal voter lists; the measure was challenged in court. His administration also pressed states over voter records. Near the end of the campaign, Trump offered a $1 million reward for reports of fraud leading to an arrest and conviction and made recognition of the results conditional on whether he considered the voting honest.
Civil rights groups have raised concerns that the presence of ICE agents near polling places could intimidate voters. The Department of Justice said ICE and FBI agents would not serve as election monitors.
Senate races in Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska and Kansas are among the contests rated most competitive by the Cook Political Report. Texas has drawn particular attention: Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton. A Talarico victory would end a 38-year absence of Democratic senators from the state, which has backed Republicans in presidential elections since 1980, and could help Democrats in their effort to retake the Senate. Cook Political Report also gives Democrats an advantage in North Carolina and Georgia.
State-level contests will determine more than the makeup of Congress. Governors and state legislatures influence education, public safety, taxes, health care and election administration. The United States has no single national authority responsible for running elections, so rules for registration, early voting, counting and certification differ by state.
The new members of Congress are due to take office in January 2027. Their arrival will shape Trump’s relationship with the legislature and his ability to pursue his agenda over the final two years of his term.
Sources: Folha Mundo.