Cobalt prices have fallen sharply since summer 2026, reversing a surge in 2025 that followed export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world’s largest producer. The decline reflects improved Chinese supply, including shipments that were exported from the DRC earlier in the year but have yet to arrive.
Tom Kavanagh, Argus Media’s head of metals price assessment for Europe, said some DRC exports to China during the first nine months of the year had been delayed. Significant volumes remain in transit, and their arrival at Chinese ports is easing recent supply pressures. These shipments are also seen as a temporary buffer against possible changes to DRC regulations. The country’s minerals markets regulator, ARECOMS, has said it could adjust quotas if the imbalance between supply and demand worsens.
Recycling and subdued demand are also weighing on prices. China may now produce 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes of recycled cobalt annually, while the Cobalt Institute describes demand as sluggish. Chinese buyers remain cautious despite near-term concerns about production, with excess stocks of some products potentially still needing to be used, Kavanagh said.
Between July and mid-October, cobalt hydroxide—the raw material exported from the DRC—lost nearly 43% of its value, according to the Cobalt Institute. Over the same period, cobalt sulfate fell by more than 35%, while cobalt metal declined by 16%.
Indonesian output is another factor affecting prices. The Cobalt Institute expects production there to fall in 2026 as higher sulfuric acid costs squeeze producers. The chemical is widely used to extract cobalt, which is produced as a by-product of nickel mining in Indonesia. Disruptions in the sulfur market since the start of the war in the Middle East have reduced producers’ margins, prompting some to scale back.
Argus Media nevertheless expects more Indonesian cobalt to reach the market in 2027 and sees the country as a major downward pressure on prices. Industry participants forecast a 30,000-tonne increase in global production next year, although the report notes that production does not necessarily translate into exports: the regularity of shipments will also affect prices.
Sources: RFI.