Millions of Americans are approaching Tuesday's midterm elections with heightened anticipation or anxiety, according to the report, and the contest is expected to test the nation's political direction and confidence. At least some portion of the country is likely to have its political confidence, and perhaps its sense of security, tested in the days and weeks ahead. That test could continue for some time.
The first place to look for elevated anxiety is among voters most loyal to President Trump, whom he calls MAGA or 'my base.' Polling suggests the midterm pendulum will swing back against the White House incumbent, as it has in every midterm over the last 100 years with very few exceptions. More punishment for the party of the second-term president would be expected in blue states he lost in each of his three White House campaigns. But this fall's polls also point to significant Republican losses in swing states and even in some red states Trump won all three times, often by double-digit margins.
That is why Trump spent the last weekend of the campaign making an electoral 'goal line stand' for the Senate by visiting Iowa and Kansas. When Trump was a first-time candidate a decade ago, he won 31 Iowa counties that had previously voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Kansas, a historically Republican state, has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Trump put live visits to Iowa and Kansas on his schedule for the final weekend even as he did remote 'tele-rallies' in 19 other states. The Iowa-Kansas plan was briefly cancelled late in the pre-election week, then reinstated just before the weekend. The strategy suggests Trump's political team remains focused on limiting GOP losses in a tough environment.
Most observers now predict Trump's party will lose its slim majority in the House. The consensus is that the Senate is too close to call, and it is possible the GOP could hold the majority using the tie-breaking vote to which Vice President Vance is entitled. Midterm elections inevitably act as referenda on current officeholders, and no current officeholder is as visible as the U.S. president. Presidents routinely campaign for their party's midterm candidates, but Trump has worked hard to make the election about himself.
In his first term, Trump tried a more conventional approach, acting as an executive in a system of shared powers. This time, he has cast himself as the driver of historic events and the avenger of many wrongs, real or imagined, and as the architect of a new Washington and a new era. He has done so despite objections from U.S. allies around the world, Congress and the federal bench. While that interpretation has played well with his base, the larger electorate is a different story. Anti-Trump rallies have used the simple 'No Kings' mantra. Critics and Democrats have focused on promises Trump has made but not delivered, including peace in Ukraine on Day 1 and a new era for Israel and the Palestinians. To voters, the greater disappointment is economic: Trump said he would make things cheaper and tame inflation, but inflation remains elevated and the public sees gas prices leading a sustained surge in everyday costs. An average of Trump's recent approval numbers shows them falling from a clear majority of 52% early in 2025 to an average of 37% now, below the 40% threshold that has signaled brutal midterm results in the past.
Democrats' confidence may be premature. If they win the House, their majority will be modest by historic standards. If they eke out a Senate majority, it will be so narrow that the primary beneficiaries are likely to be mavericks willing to buck party leadership on both sides of the aisle. Even robust Democratic majorities would need to confront significant divisions that persist and may be growing in their ranks. The most glaring is the contrast between majoritarian consensus builders and the party's firebrands on the left. The latter group has been pleased with the party's class of nominees for Congress this year, including a cadre aligned or associated with the Democratic Socialists of America. DSA candidates have attracted media attention and been featured in Republicans' fall campaign ads and messaging, even in places where the DSA favorite lost in the primary and is not on the November ballot.
To some degree, the 2026 Democrats have united around issues such as energy and grocery prices and the war on Iran. Opposing vast data centers to be built for the AI industry has been another shared cause. Whatever their differences, this year's Democrats have been a chorus of opposition to Trump. But there are reasons to doubt the united front can be preserved if Democrats get back into power. Most expect at least one chamber of Congress to be theirs in the new year, and there will be a new president after 2028. Political demographer and author Ruy Teixeira, who spent most of his career at think tanks associated with Democrats such as the Center for American Progress and the Brookings Institution and is now at the American Enterprise Institute, has focused on the party's internal issues. He is best known for his 2002 book with John Judis, 'The Emerging Democratic Majority,' and has long focused on the party's history with white, non-college-educated voters. He is also co-author with Joel Rogers of 'America's Forgotten Majority: Why The White Working Class Still Matters.' In October, Teixeira published 11 questions he said Democrats must confront if they regain congressional power. The final question was whether the party would embrace positions that resonate with working-class voters and prioritize their interests rather than its recent concentration on race, gender, energy, environment and social policy.
Beyond the questions for the two major parties, these midterms have cast doubt on the conduct of U.S. elections themselves. For generations, Americans have generally shown confidence in their electoral systems and results, but that too has become a target. Democracy has often been called an ongoing experiment that tests whether people can have a voice in their own governing and whether that voice can be heard and heeded. Nonpartisan experts in voting laws and machinery have generally defended the current state of American processes. Legislation, administrative professionalism and fresh funding at the national and state levels have upgraded election administration since the Help America Vote Act became law two decades ago, following the Florida vote-counting debacle in 2000. HAVA enabled states and localities to replace punch-card ballots and other outdated methods with touch-screen technology and preservable paper trails, improving voter confidence and security. Yet faith in the system is likely to be tested in the days ahead. It is not just about one race or one state, or about candidates and issues, but about the system Trump repeatedly calls into question without evidence.
As far back as his first nomination in 2016, Trump told crowds that if he lost it would be because the process was fraudulent. He said Democrats could not win unless they cheated, and a defeat would simply prove his assertion. Four years later, Trump summoned thousands of supporters to Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, to protest and deny his defeat in the previous November's presidential election. 'Stop the steal' was the cry, based on conjecture and emotion and a preference for a different outcome. Trump accepted the results in 2024 as he and his party won. But he continues to label information, be it polling results or daily news reporting, as fake. He responds to a question from a White House credentialed reporter by asking who the reporter is with, then says the reporter is fake news. He regularly tells audiences to ignore 'fake news' and 'fake polls.' The report says it is easy to imagine him exhorting followers to ignore 'fake results.' There will be tension on election night, as there always is, but the greater stress may come in the days and weeks ahead.
Sources: NPR News.