Eight months into the conflict involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz presents a complex paradox: it is simultaneously more porous and more dangerous than ever before. While the volume of crude oil, natural gas, and derivatives leaving the Persian Gulf has grown exponentially, attacks on tankers and LNG carriers have also increased significantly. Consequently, market prices are reacting more to this heightened peril and stalled negotiations than to the actual flow of vessels through a waterway that previously handled one-fifth of the world's fossil fuel consumption. Crude oil closed Friday's session near $118 per barrel, marking its highest level in six months.
Analysts from Eurasia Group, Henning Gloystein and Gregory Brew, note that despite production in the Middle East returning to pre-war levels, the risk of renewed escalation between Iran and the United States, alongside further Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, remains significant. They project prices will stay within a $110 to $125 per barrel range for the remainder of 2026, particularly if US President Donald Trump follows through on threats to attack Iran following the upcoming midterm legislative elections.
Hamad Hussain, a senior economist at Capital Economics, identifies three primary drivers keeping prices elevated despite the return of trade flows. First, Western strategic crude reserves have been depleted after months of withdrawals to cool overheated markets. Second, China has resumed aggressive purchasing after relying on its own inventories when imports were blocked. Third, there is a persistent risk of renewed US and Israeli missile strikes on Iran. Hussain argues that these factors push valuations above what supply and demand fundamentals alone would justify.
October marked the worst month on record for maritime incidents in the region. According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), 33 merchant vessels were attacked or hit within the strait or the broader Persian Gulf, averaging more than one per day. This contrasts sharply with April through June, when monthly attacks did not reach ten. Since March 1, a total of 133 ships have been targeted, including 12 disabled by US forces enforcing blockades on Iranian ports.
The violence in Hormuz is part of a wider global spiral of maritime conflict. In 2026 alone, at least 224 merchant vessels have been attacked by military forces across three seas. Beyond the Gulf, hotspots include the Black Sea, where Russia targets grain ships and Ukraine strikes Moscow-linked tankers, and the Red Sea, where Houthis have resumed firing at Saudi-linked vessels.
Attacks in Hormuz are increasingly concentrated on energy transport; Windward intelligence reports that 87% of vessels targeted by Iran between July and September were energy-related. The scope of these attacks has expanded beyond the strait's exit to the heart of the Persian Gulf, reaching within 95 kilometers of Qatar and near the Saudi port of Al Yubail. Additionally, a drone strike on November 11 at the Sohar anchorage in the Gulf of Oman hit a tanker, leaving two Indian sailors missing.
Martin Kelly of Orbital Risk Intelligence describes Iran's tactics as "almost daily or multiple attacks per day," aimed at impeding passage and deterring other operators. Transit numbers fluctuate wildly; while the US reported over 40 ships crossing on October 16, Windward counted only 14 five days later. Although investment banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs recently noted that export arteries are flowing again at pre-war levels of 23 million barrels per day, nearly 500 ships were waiting to cross the strait last week according to JMIC.
The cost of traversing Hormuz has surged due to higher shipping expenses and war risk insurance premiums. Francesco Sassi, an energy professor at the University of Oslo, notes that only state-owned Gulf companies or large international operators can afford these costs. Before the war, war risk insurance for crossing the strait was approximately 0.25% of a vessel's value. By late August, this had risen to between 3% and 8%. For a tanker valued at €135 million, this translates to an additional cost of €4 million to €11 million per voyage, compared to roughly €340,000 prior to the conflict.
Freight rates have also skyrocketed. Kpler estimates that transporting crude from the Persian Gulf to China now costs about $24 per barrel, accounting for a quarter of the oil's price, up from 5% before the war. Even ships loading in the Gulf of Oman without crossing the strait pay around $12 per barrel due to exposure to attacks. Jakob P. Larsen, security director at Bimco, explains that fewer shipowners and crews are willing to operate in high-threat zones, driving up freight costs as each operator individually assesses their risk tolerance.
Sources: El País Internacional.